In late November, skiers and snowboarders eagerly waiting for the start of Hokkaido’s winter season received troubling news. Niseko Grand Hirafu and Rusutsu Resort officially announced that they would postpone their originally planned November 29 opening. The decision was made due to an insufficient amount of natural snow, and in the short term, fully opening with artificial snow alone is realistically difficult.
Below is an independent forecast based on the current snow situation and meteorological conditions, along with key points and preparations to consider when planning a trip to the area.
1) The Basic Situation — Why the Opening Was Delayed
The main reason resorts announce a postponed opening is simple: there is not enough natural snow to ensure safe and satisfying skiing. There are limits to what artificial snow can cover, and the resorts judged that they could not yet provide sufficiently safe and enjoyable terrain. This postponement appears to be largely due to wide day–night temperature differences in low-altitude and flatland areas, combined with warm air masses that limited snowfall. For lift operation and slope safety, it is realistic to wait until at least some terrain has a stable base created by a combination of natural and artificial snow.
2) Current Snowfall Trends (Key Points)
- On the Sea of Japan side—including Hokkaido’s Japan Sea coast—when a strong winter pressure pattern develops, snow clouds can flow in quickly, bringing substantial snowfall in a short time. High elevations benefit most, with the base areas sometimes receiving rain or heavy wet snow while the upper mountains get lighter powder.
- The Niseko area often receives moist air from the sea, producing the well-known “light and deep powder.” However, early this season, snowfall may be intermittent depending on how and when cold air masses arrive.
- Rusutsu is located slightly inland compared to Niseko. If snow clouds continue to flow in steadily, large accumulations can occur, but differences in wind direction or low-pressure paths can create significant variation in snowfall.
3) Key Meteorological Factors for the Short Term — What to Watch Over the Next Two Weeks
To determine whether opening is possible within the next few days to two weeks, the following meteorological factors are critical:
- Persistence of a strong winter pattern: Whether cold air continues to flow into the Sea of Japan side and Hokkaido. If sustained, the natural snow base can develop rapidly.
- Track of low-pressure systems: Depending on the location of low pressure over the Sea of Japan, snowfall may concentrate on Niseko or shift toward northern and central Hokkaido.
- Nighttime temperature drops: Artificial snowmaking requires nighttime cooling. If daytime warmth persists, building a solid base becomes difficult even with artificial snow.
If short-term forecasts suggest several rounds of cold air passage, partial openings—especially at higher elevations—may become possible within 1–2 weeks. If cold air inflow remains sporadic, full opening may shift into early to mid-December.
4) Independent Prediction — When Will They Open?
The following is an independent prediction based on multiple weather trends and the resorts’ cautious decision-making:
- Optimistic short-term scenario (repeated cold-air outbreaks): If multiple cold air masses pass over the Sea of Japan and Hokkaido, parts of the resorts may open as early as the first week of December (Dec 1–7). Higher elevation areas would open first at both Niseko and Rusutsu.
- Realistic baseline scenario (unstable snowfall): If cold-air peaks are brief and snowfall remains intermittent, complete opening may occur around mid-December (Dec 10–20). Artificial snowmaking would build the base until natural snow catches up.
- Pessimistic scenario (weak cold air / warm winter tendency): If warm air persists and low-pressure systems track unfavorably, opening could be delayed until late December or even year-end. Full operation—including ungroomed or powder areas—could be difficult within the year.
While nothing is certain at this stage, combining current weather models with expected cold-air inflow suggests that the most probable outlook (50–60% confidence) is:
“Partial or limited opening in early December, with more complete opening progressing into mid-December.”
Because each resort’s maintenance status, staff readiness, and artificial snowmaking conditions vary, checking their official announcements remains essential.
5) For Those Unsure Whether to Go — Practical Checklist
- Check official SNS/news every morning: Opening information changes until the last moment. Official websites and SNS (Twitter/FB/Instagram) post updates fastest.
- Choose flexible lodging and transport options: Prepare for delays or severe weather by selecting reservations with lenient cancellation policies.
- Early-morning high-elevation runs: If only upper areas open, powder conditions are often best early in the day.
- Prepare for varying cold and snow types: Early season conditions swing between dry cold and heavy wet snow. Ensure waterproofing and insulation.
- Check road/transport restrictions: Road closures, chain regulations, train delays, or ferry cancellations are common with winter storms. Verify conditions before travel.
6) How to Plan Your Trip — Practical Examples
- Short weekend trip: If the resorts announce limited opening, aim for a high-elevation day trip. Given fast-changing weather, early departures and flexible itineraries are safest.
- Long stay (one week or more): Plan for mid-December onward when conditions become more reliable. Choose lodging with flexible cancellation, and adjust riding days to match powder cycles.
7) Summary
As of now, the official announcement states that the November 29 opening has been postponed. If multiple strong cold-air outbreaks arrive, limited opening could occur in early December; if it takes longer, a full opening is likely in mid-December. For those aiming to enjoy JAPOW, planning for December or later is recommended. Always confirm final details through the official opening announcements.
